Democrats lead in all seven Senate battlegrounds surveyed in the final round of New York Times/Siena University polling, released on Sunday, November 1, 2026, two days before the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3.
Polling of likely voters, conducted between October 23 and November 1, puts the party ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, the seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold the chamber 53 to 47, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority, with 35 Senate seats on the ballot alongside all 435 House seats.
Why the numbers matter is straightforward: a Democratic Senate majority would reshape the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term, while a Republican hold would preserve his party’s control of Congress. The polls arrive at the end of a campaign dominated by the cost of living, the economy and the war in Iran, and they suggest Democrats enter Election Day with momentum in states that usually vote Republican.
Siena Research Institute executive director Don Levy described a Democratic Senate majority as “a distinct possibility” but cautioned that a majority for either party remains possible. “Now, it’s time for all votes to be cast and the counts to speak louder than the polls,” he said in the institute’s release.
The Senate polls in full
Michigan shows the largest Democratic advantage. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53 per cent to 42 per cent, an 11-point margin, according to the surveys. Texas follows, with Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 50 per cent to 43 per cent.
Maine Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 per cent to 45 per cent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 per cent to 44 per cent, with Libertarian candidate David Graham at 4 per cent. Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator, leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 per cent to 44 per cent in the special election for the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 per cent to 46 per cent, while Iowa Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson 48 per cent to 47 per cent. The surveys covered 610 likely voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio and 1,215 in Texas.
Polling on the wider campaign points in the same direction. Across the seven surveyed states, only 38 per cent of likely voters approved of Trump’s job performance, according to reports of the surveys. Democrats also held a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living across the battleground states, leading on that issue in all seven.
Other late polling tells a more cautious story. YouGov surveys taken from October 26 to 29 showed smaller Democratic leads in Michigan, Texas, Ohio and Kansas, at 51 to 47, 51 to 47, 50 to 48 and 50 to 49 respectively. The gap between pollsters is a reminder that different samples, methods and turnout assumptions can move the same race by several points.
Inside the margin of error
Five of the seven Democratic leads fall within the polls’ margins of error, according to AFP’s summary of the surveys. Only El-Sayed’s 11-point lead in Michigan and Talarico’s seven-point lead in Texas sit clearly outside that margin.
That leaves the other five races effectively tied in statistical terms, even though Democrats lead in each one on the headline numbers.
Polls are snapshots rather than forecasts, and surveys in close races can miss by several points in either direction, particularly in turnout-dependent midterm elections. The surveys also found a warning sign for Democrats: voters who said they made their voting decisions within the last month favoured Republicans by nine percentage points, according to reports of the findings.
Governor races in the same surveys showed Democrats ahead by eight or more points in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan, while the contests in Kansas and Texas were too close to call, Siena said. Those results, like the Senate numbers, will only be tested once ballots are counted.
Context helps explain why the Senate map looks so open. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988 or in Kansas since 1932, according to reports of the polls. A Democratic win in either state on Tuesday would therefore mark a break with decades of electoral history, not a routine swing.
Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3. What remains confirmed is the shape of the final polling: Democrats ahead in all seven battlegrounds, two leads clear of the margin of error, five inside it. What remains unconfirmed is whether those leads become votes, and the counts, as Levy put it, will speak louder than the polls.
